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We saved out best regular season predictions for the last real week of the season, and will attempt to carry that momentum into the bowl games. Our 4-1 record last time out had only one hiccup and that was the Alabama Crimson Tide winning by 4 against the Georgia Bulldogs when we bet on them to win by 7.5 or more. Alabama outgained Georgia by 100+ yards but gave up a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown that proved to be the difference between a winning and losing bet.
Record against the point spread: 40-54
Nevada vs. Arizona -9.5
The only thing certain here is that both teams will score so I'm all over Nevada as a large underdog. These two teams simply have offenses that are better than the opposing defenses.
Toledo vs. Utah State -10
Toledo looks nice a nice bet as a double digit underdog. Utah State's defense is better statistically but can be scored upon (see the Louisiana Tech game), and the Rockets should keep this close in another high-scoring bowl game.
BYU -2.5 vs. San Diego State
The Cougars have the stronger defense, but the question is will their offense be able to move the ball against San Diego State. I believe they will be able to and BYU wins in a rout.
Ball State vs. Central Florida -7
Central Florida doesn't dominate Ball State statistically, but what they do have is a knack for forcing turnovers. That will be the difference as the favorite wins by double digits while taking better care of the ball.
East Carolina vs. UL-Lafayette -5.5
I think UL-Lafayette will be able to score plenty of points, but I also think that East Carolina will do the same. This is a 50/50 type of game and I'll go with the Pirates as the underdog.
Washington vs. Boise State -5.5
This is the first of the bowls that really sticks out as a low-scoringa me. Boise State can't score big points this year and Washington's defense has played well. The Huskies won't be able to move the ball on the Broncos either. That being said, Boise State forces the key turnovers and wins by 7 or more because of it.
SMU vs. Fresno State -11.5
Fresno State should have no problem dominating this team. Their one weakness on defense is stopping the run and SMU can't run. The Mustangs are a passing team going up against one of the best secondaries in college football and this bowl could get ugly fast.
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky -5.5
Western Kentucky runs the ball well and plays good defense, but Central Michigan can score some points. I like the Chippewas to possibly win outright as the 5.5-point underdog.
Bowling Green vs. San Jose State -7
San Jose State should roll here since Bowling Green can't score against decent defenses. The Spartans will struggle a bit as well against a strong defense, but ultimately they will force turnovers and win by double digits.
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Duke
The Bearcats can play defense while Duke can't. I think Cincinnati scores fairly easily here while the Blue Devils struggle to do so. Go with the favorite to win comfortably.
Baylor vs. UCLA -1
This will be one of the highest scoring bowl games of the year and whoever has the ball last seems likely to win. UCLA has a bit more on defense and they are our pick to win because of it.
Ohio vs. UL-Monroe -7
UL-Monroe has an offense to score points on just about every team, while Ohio has struggled against the good defenses they've gone up against. The Warhawks have enough on defense to cause problems and should win by 14 or more.