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2014 Fantasy Football: QB Stat Projections (11-32)
By Matt Horkman

11. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Outlook: Talent isn’t an issue with Kaepernick, as he’s undoubtedly one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks. However, San Francisco prides itself on running the football. Despite the superb pass catchers around him, Kaepernick isn’t likely to produce major passing output.

Projections: 3,343 passing yards, 529 rushing yards, 26 touchdowns (4 rushing), & 11 turnovers (3 fumbles)

12. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Outlook: A number of factors prevent Brady from joining Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning as an elite fantasy quarterback. New England’s receiving corps is incredibly weak, star tight end Rob Gronkowski is injury prone, and the Patriots took a more run-oriented approach in 2013. No longer is Brady an elite fantasy quarterback. He projects as a backend QB1.

Projections: 4,618 passing yards, 18 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, & 13 turnovers (3 fumbles)

13. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Outlook: After back-to-back underwhelming seasons, Rivers rebounded in ‘13 with 32 touchdown passes and 4,478 passing yards. In fact, last year marked just the third time in his career that he threw for 4,000-plus yards and 30 or more touchdowns in the same season. He’ll threaten to achieve that stat for a fourth time this year.

Projections: 4,171 passing yards, 71 rushing yards, 30 touchdowns, & 15 turnovers (4 fumbles)

14. Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
Outlook: Historically, high-profile quarterbacks that lean on their scrambling tend to have success early in their careers. Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III immediately come to mind. From a fantasy standpoint, look for Manziel’s rookie season to mirror theirs, though receiver Josh Gordon’s looming suspension won’t help matters. 

Projections: 3,118 passing yards, 612 rushing yards, 25 touchdowns (7 rushing), & 18 turnovers (3 fumbles)

15. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Outlook: Upside isn’t a problem for Romo, as he’s capable of eclipsing 5,000 yards passing. In fact, if you can bet on him remaining healthy, he could finish as one of fantasy’s top five signal callers. However, Romo is a classic buyer beware player, as he turned 34 last April, and is coming off off-season back surgery.

Projections: 4,122 passing yards, 43 rushing yards, 30 touchdowns (1 rushing), & 15 turnovers (2 fumbles)

16. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Outlook: New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will lean on the run more than his predecessor did, so Dalton’s statistical output will fall just short of his 2013 season.

Projections: 3,845 passing yards, 152 rushing yards, 31 touchdowns (3 rushing), & 20 turnovers (4 fumbles)

17. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
Outlook: From a fantasy perspective, the arrival of Ken Whisenhunt and the departure of Chris Johnson makes Locker a whole lot more intriguing. Whisenhunt helped mold Ben Roethlisberger into a franchise quarterback and played a significant role in revitalizing Kurt Warner’s career in Arizona. He also guided Rivers to a bounce back season last year. Whisenhunt as a mentor is just what Locker needs to jumpstart his career.

Projections: 3,215 passing yards, 365 rushing yards, 27 touchdowns (5 rushing), & 15 turnovers (4 fumbles)

18. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Outlook: Tannehill plays in a system tailored for quarterbacks, but the talent around him will continue to prevent him from taking the next step.

Projections: 4,086 passing yards, 254 rushing yards, 27 touchdowns (1 rushing), & 23 turnovers (5 fumbles)
Ben Roethlisberger
19. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Outlook: While Roethlisberger is among the league’s most clutch passers, he’s never been a fantasy star. That’ll hold true in ‘14, as Pittsburgh’s not likely to get too pass-happy with second-year running back Le’Veon Bell in the mix.

Projections: 3,812 passing yards, 122 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, & 15 turnovers (4 fumbles)

20. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs,
Outlook: The Chiefs’ offense revolves around Jamaal Charles and the running game. Smith is no more than a QB2 worth the occasional spot start.

Projections: 3,530 passing yards, 127 rushing yards, 27 touchdowns (1 rushing), & 11 turnovers (4 fumbles)

21. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
Outlook: Coming off a torn ACL, Bradford doesn’t have talent around him to emerge as a week-to-week fantasy starter.

Projections: 3,734 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, 26 touchdowns (1 rushing), & 13 turnovers (1 fumble)

22. Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Outlook: With their first two picks, Tampa Bay drafted wide receiver Mike Evans and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. They’ll join Vincent Jackson, giving McCown a set of pass catchers that physically compare to his old Chicago teammates.

Projections: 3,690 passing yards, 68 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns (1 rushing), & 14 turnovers (5 fumbles)

23. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Outlook: Durability is a red flag for Cutler, as he’s missed 11 games in four years. With that said, Chicago features one of the NFC’s best offenses. If Cutler remains healthy over a 16-game schedule, he’ll undoubtedly surpass his projections.

Projections: 3,640 passing yards, 205 rushing yards, 27 touchdowns, & 17 turnovers (4 fumbles)

24. Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants
Outlook: New offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo should help Manning improve upon a woeful ‘13 campaign. He’ never been a fantasy star, though, and a new system isn’t going to transform him into one. 

Projections: 4,127 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, 24 touchdowns, & 18 turnovers (2 fumbles)

25. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills
Outlook: The Bills want to lean on the run, while they continue to develop Manuel. His scrambling gives him some fantasy upside, making him worth stashing in dynasty leagues. 

Projections: 3,276 passing yards, 306 rushing yards, 24 touchdowns (4 rushing), & 21 turnovers (5 fumbles)

26. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans
Outlook: Fitzpatrick is a stopgap, for most of Houston’s fantasy value lies with Arian Foster.

Projections: 3,066 passing yards, 300 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns (4 rushing), & 14 turnovers (2 fumbles)

27. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Outlook: Flacco’s never eclipsed 4,000 yards passing nor has he ever thrown more than 25 touchdown passes in a season. He isn’t a viable fantasy quarterback.

Projections: 3,598 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns (2 rushing), & 20 turnovers (4 fumbles)

28. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Outlook: A receiver tandem of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd makes Palmer somewhat intriguing, but the veteran signal caller is clearly on the downside of his career. He’s no more than a fill in when your starter is on his bye week.

Projections: 3,798 passing yards, 18 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns, & 20 turnovers (4 fumbles)

29. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Outlook: Look for Carr to unseat Matt Schaub sooner rather than later. The Raiders don’t have enough weapons, however, for a rookie to come in and make an immediate fantasy impact. He’s worth monitoring in dynasty leagues, though.

Projections: 3,406 passing yards, 0 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns, & 17 turnovers (1 fumble)

30. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
Outlook: Whether it’s Bridgewater, Matt Cassel, or Christian Ponder, Minnesota will lean heavily on Adrian Peterson again in 2014. The run-first offense and crowded quarterback situation prevents Bridgewater from achieving his potential immediately. Nevertheless, he’s worthy of a roster spot in dynasty leagues.

Projections: 2,589 passing yards, 154 rushing yards, 20 touchdowns (4 rushing), & 13 turnovers (2 fumbles)

31. Geno Smith, N.Y. Jets
Outlook: Avoid Smith in all drafts. The Jets have a weak group of receivers and Michael Vick is breathing down his neck. 

Projections: 2,040 passing yards, 384 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns (6 rushing), & 16 turnovers (2 fumbles)

32. Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Outlook: Henne is just keeping the seat warm for Blake Bortles.

Projections: 1,994 passing yards, 54 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns (1 rushing), & 11 turnovers (1 fumble)

Scoring Key
4 points per passing touchdown
6 points per rushing touchdown
1 point per 25 passing yards
1 point per 10 rushing yards
-2 points per turnover

Click for QBs 1-10

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