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Our early season hot streak hasn't worn off yet as we finished week 3 at 10-6 which pushes our winning percentage while picking every single game against the point spread up to 61% on the year. There's no time to sit back and admire our work with some more incredible matchups on the week 4 NFL schedule and we will do our best to make sure our predictions keep making Las Vegas odds makers look silly.
NFL Record Year-to-Date: 28-18-1
New York Giants at Washington Redskins -3.5
The Giants don't pass protect well at all but Washington doesn't have much of a defense and they are going to be even worse than before after suffering some huge injuries last week. New York can do enough to keep this game close in a tough divisional rivalry. Take the Giants.
Miami Dolphins -4 at Oakland Raiders
A part of me wants to take the Raiders since they won me money last week as big underdogs against the Patriots but this team simply isn't any good. Miami's defensive line should dominate Oakland's offense and the Dolphins have enough weapons to cover these odds while winning by 10 or so.
Green Bay Packers -1 at Chicago Bears
The Bears are the luckiest team in the NFL thus far and I expect that luck to run out against a Green Bay team desperate for a win. The Packers are superior on both sides of the ball and can win fairly easily on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans -3
The Texans looked great in their first 2 games but fell apart at the seams last week against the Giants. Buffalo is one of the tougher teams in the NFL for me to figure out they seem capable on both sides of the ball. Ultimately I'll take the home team here as I prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick to E.J. Manuel when it comes to the starting quarterback battle.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -7.5
The Titans looked awful last week and might not have Jake Locker in week 4, but they still don't deserve to be this large of underdogs against the Colts. Indianapolis is just crushed right now with injuries and this is a winnable game for Tennessee.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens -3.5
The Panthers still have an elite defense and the Baltimore offense doesn't look nearly as sharp as in previous seasons. Go with Carolina to force key turnovers while using their rushing attack to beat an overrated Ravens defense in this week 4 upset.
Detroit Lions -1.5 at New York Jets
The Jets are above average everywhere but at quarterback where Geno Smith consistently loses games single handedly. Detroit's defensive line should force him into a few more mistakes in this game but I still like New York as an underdog at home. If Geno manages to play a good game they'll win easily but that's asking too much at this point from one of the worst decision makers in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
The Steelers were impressive last week while winning against the Panthers but this is a big letdown spot for them. The Buccaneers looked awful last week but are much stronger than they appeared and Pittsburgh's defense barely has any healthy bodies left. I'll go a step further and say that Tampa Bay wins outright here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers -13.5
The Jaguars have been just about useless on both sides of the ball thus far but is San Diego really good enough to be favored by nearly 2 touchdowns against anyone? San Diego has almost no one healthy at running back and their defense is still not good. Take Jacksonville to lose by only 10 or 11.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers -5.5
We've gone against the 49ers a few times this season and this seems like another good spot to do so. San Francisco's defense has numerous guys hurt or suspended and their secondary can't cover anyone. I fully expect the 49ers to score 30 or more here but they have no business being favored by more than a point.
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Minnesota Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater is going to be a star in the NFL and I think Minnesota can put up points here but ultimately the Falcons are going to score at will and it's asking too much for the rookie to keep his team competitive in start #1. Atlanta wins by 6.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 at Dallas Cowboys
The Saints could put up 40 against the Cowboys here and I'm still not sure they'll win the game. This has all the makings of a shootout and you have to like Dallas playing at home and catching over a field goal.
New England Patriots -3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has a multitude of injuries to their defense and offensive line that will make winning against the better teams impossible for a few more weeks. Go with the Patriots to score at will while doing enough to win 35-24 or so.