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Week 4 of the NFL season was our worst of the year thus far and we still managed to 7-6 against the point spread betting odds in Las Vegas. We had a few nice upsets predicted along the way such as the New York Giants over the Washington Redskins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Dallas Cowboys over the New Orleans Saints. We'll do our best to nail down another set of winning predictions as head into week 5 of the NFL season.
NFL Record Year-to-Date: 35-24-1
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -9
Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has just been ruled out but I still think Minnesota is the play. The Green Bay defense has been awful and the rain should limit the passing abilities of Aaron Rodgers. Look for a run-based game that gets a bit ugly in the elements. In a spot like this I prefer the large underdog.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers -2.5
The Bears are getting by with smoke and mirrors lately. Their wide receivers aren't at 100% and their defense is one of the worst units in the NFL. Chicago has benefitted from key turnovers and you just can't count on those happening week after week. Go with Carolina to win big.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans -2
The Titans welcome back Jake Locker at quarterback but they are a tough team to figure out right now. The defense is a particularly large question mark as they alernate between terrific and awful performances. Ultimately Tennessee at home as a small favorite against a team that is limited offensively seems to be the right call.
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles -7
Philadelphia has seen quite a few offensive line injuries this year and they are going up against a very strong St. Louis defensive line. That being said, I still think the Eagles can win by 10 or more even if they struggle offensively since the Rams will likely to struggle at all on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants -4
The Giants have won us some money in recent weeks and we are riding them again here. Atlanta is a team that has an awful defense and looks to pass the ball to score a million points in shootouts. The problem for the Falcons is that New York has excellent cornerbacks and Atlanta has a slew of offensive line injuries that won't allow Matt Ryan time to throw. Giants win easily.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints +10
The Buccaneers won us money last week and we'll have to ride them again the current odds. Tampa Bay's defensive front is getting healthy and New Orleans just hasn't looked right on either side of the ball. I think the Saints win by 7 or 8 but a double digit point spread almost makes you have to take the underdog.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys -6
Dallas' offense is capable of scoring points against most teams but Houston's above average defense should give them a tough test. The Cowboys have played remarkably well defensively but I still don't believe they are anything better than below average on that side of the ball. Look for a late field goal to decide the winner here.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions -7
The Lions are dealing with wide receiver Calvin Johnson at less than 100% and also seem unlikely to have Joique Bell at running back due to a concussion. Against a solid Buffalo defense that is going to be an issue and I'm all over the underdog in this one.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts -3.5
I don't respect either of these defenses but the Ravens are probably a tick better on that side of the ball. Offensively it's close but I'll give a slight nod to Baltimore once again because they can run the ball a little better. The play here has to be on the Ravens as the Colts have quite a few issues to work out still.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars
We went against the Steelers last week and they got beat at home as 7.5-point underdogs. This week we think they can win big. The Jaguars' are below average on both sides of the ball and Pittsburgh should come out with a chip on their shoulder after being uspet in week 4.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos -7.5
The Cardinals likely won't have Carson Palmer at quarterback and they also won't be able to rely on their defense against Denver's vaunted scoring machine. Asking Drew Stanton to keep even on the scoreboard with Peyton Manning and company is asking too much and the Cardinals usually play poorly away from home. Take the Broncos to win by 20 or more.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers -6
We've faded the 49ers a few times this season and will do so once again. The Chiefs struggled a bit over their first 4 games but have a few important offensive lineman making their 2014 debuts and that should help quite a bit. The 49ers make too many silly mistakes to be large favorites right now. San Francisco by 3.
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers -6.5
San Diego is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now with New York as one of the most underrated. The Jets would likely win this game if Michael Vick were starting but even with Geno Smith turning the ball over a few times they have a chance at the outright upset.
Cincinnati Bengals -1 at New England Patriots
I really want to take the Patriots since they are in desperate need of a bounce back effort after some embarassing performances lately but I just can't do it. Cincinnati is better in every facet and even on the road I have to pick them to find a way to win against a New England offensive line that just isn't that good.
Seattle Seahawks -7 at Washington Redskins
Washington was better than they looked last week in their humiliating loss against the Giants but they still don't have much hope here. Seattle will get whatever they want offensively and the Redskins aren't going to keep pace against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Seahawks win by double digits.